Coal chemical cooling is a foregone conclusion
Introduction: It is well known, "the western region encouraged industries catalog" From October 1 officially implemented, compared with the previously released draft, "directory" of Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai and other 6 provinces originally included in the "encouraged" and "an annual output more than 500,000 tons of coal methanol to olefins and an annual output of more than 1 million tons of coal methanol project" all be canceled.
This means that in the future if more of these areas through the construction of coal-methanol to olefins and coal to methanol project, will no longer enjoy a 15% enterprise income tax preferential policies. This will no doubt give the western region was fanatical modern coal chemical poured cold water, so that some industry insiders marvel. But if look at the overall situation and long-term vision with the introduction of the policy is not only correct but also timely.
Reflect the views of two levels
"Directory" and the draft reflects the views of two levels. The draft reflects the views of the local government, saying that white is a summary of local opinion. And its content in 2013 even in 2012 it has been formed. The prevailing economic situation, domestic energy structure, with the current supply and demand situation different.
GDP in only driven by the idea of Heroes, launched to encourage local governments are more willing to invest large role in boosting the economy of the apparent large-scale coal chemical projects. The "Directory" is from the national level, not only consolidated the views and aspirations of all sectors of society, but also a combination of energy, economy, the latest changes in the environment at home and abroad, and thus more comprehensive, objective, but also more realistic and forward-looking.
China's economic growth mode transformation is no longer supported by heavy industry gets going. The global economic slowdown, especially in China's economic slowdown and structural adjustment not only speed up, the proportion of primary and secondary industry has and will continue to decline, while the proportion of tertiary industry is steadily rising. Changes in development patterns, the decision including modern coal chemical, including heavy industry, the development of strength will continue to weaken.
America far-reaching impact of shale gas development
American shale gas development of large-scale success, for many countries, including China, a great touch. China's shale gas development has made encouraging progress, especially this year, making the government and investors had two worry: In the short term, low-cost natural gas and chemical products in North America and the Middle East petrochemical products will be cheap Chinese petrochemical, coal chemical market have an impact ; medium to long term, once the Chinese scale shale gas development to succeed, and even lead to an adequate supply of domestic natural gas surplus, lower prices, coal chemical will completely lose the cost advantage.
By the United States large-scale development of shale gas has made a variety of factors for success and the global economic slowdown, weakening of demand for energy and other international oil, gas, coal and other fossil energy supply loose, oversupply clues have been found that long-term prices are expected to fall. In this case, as the huge foreign exchange reserves, China will naturally take the opportunity to introduce much cleaner than coal, oil and natural gas resources, the compression necessary to consume domestic coal, water and other natural resources, and would result in greater environmental and ecological the impact of coal chemical industry.
Investors turned cautious sought by
Investors have become cautious modern coal chemical industry by the blitz. On the one hand, the market downturn in recent years, making the "losing money" effect of coal chemical project continues to spread. In particular, some local governments for investment, "a juicy marry" and "one more than the promise of coal" approach, resulting in a lot of coal chemical project can not be put into operation full load operation, significantly raised its overall costs, exacerbated by corporate losses, serious dampened the enthusiasm of enterprises to invest in large-scale coal chemical projects. On the other hand, since May 2012 the coal market remains in the doldrums, so that had deep pockets, featuring large modern coal chemical project investment of the main coal bigwigs cash-strapped, has been unable to continue to invest in the "burn" of modern coal chemical projects, coal chemical projects have "cool" inherent requirement.
Careful study of the national policy is not difficult to find, although in recent years around the coal chemical fever is difficult to retire, but at the national level, especially for coal chemical modern coal chemical industry has never been "relaxed" and even several "screeching halt." The "Directory" adjustment also is the country's coal-to-olefins of high fever a "screeching halt."
Therefore, the "Directory" also shows that the implementation of the national development of modern coal chemical industry's attitude: improve technology development and industrialization demonstration, improve technical reserves of coal chemical industry forward in the demonstration project did not achieve real success, not a comprehensive summary of modern coal chemical demonstration project lessons, breaking coal chemical green development, low-carbon development bottleneck before the state will never allow large-scale development of coal chemical industry.